cutting its profit outlook for the second time in three weeks because of changes in customer buying patterns. Retailers are already reeling as higher prices hit customersвЂ™ wallets, with Target Corp. The dot revisions will be guided by central bankersвЂ™ high-wire balancing act between addressing soaring inflation rates without torpedoing growth and consumer spending. Louis Fed colleague James Bullard said that might be worth considering, Powell has not taken anything permanently off the table and has stressed the need for policy to be nimble. While he pushed back against a 75 basis-point hike at the May meeting after his St. The Powell Fed has been careful to telegraph policy shifts well in advance. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see it rising to at 2.6%, while market-implied expectations put it at 3.2%.ДЇed Dot Plot Seen Signaling Rise in Median Rates to 3.1% in 2023 In March, the median dot for year-end was 1.9%. вЂњThe market reaction is a flatter curve and that reflects the probability of more Fed rate hikes and the risk of a weaker economy.вЂќДЄll eyes will be on next weekвЂ™s Fed statement and Chair Jerome PowellвЂ™s post-meeting press conference, where policy makersвЂ™ characterization of inflation and long-term forecasts for the fed funds target - the so-called dot plot - will be critical. вЂњThe inflation data is pretty disturbing - itвЂ™s broad-based, and this is how it becomes embedded in the economy,вЂќ said David Petrosinelli, senior trader at InspereX. Hot Inflation and Flagging Sentiment Up the Ante for Fed, Biden The catalyst was the Labor DepartmentвЂ™s Consumer Price Index report, which exceeded expectations on headline and core measures. The two-year yieldвЂ™s 25-basis-point advance was the most since 2009, while five-year yields exceeded the 2008 levels seen in May. The signal comes in the form of shrinking gaps between short- and long-maturity yields, including an re-inverted curve between the five- and 30-year yields.Д®ven in a year when daily moves of 10 basis points have become commonplace, FridayвЂ™s price action stood out and harked back to levels seen in the era of the global financial crisis. The bond market is also sending a grim message to the central bank that their efforts to catch up with inflation will increase the prospect of an economic hard landing. вЂњThis is not yet peak inflation, and 50-basis-point hikes at every meeting this year are on the table now.вЂќ The rout deepened when traders boosted bets on the likelihood of the Fed raising rates by three-quarters of a percentage point in July, while economists at Barclays Plc and Jefferies LLC say this move could come as early as next week.ДЇed policy makers вЂњreally need to be open minded here,вЂќ said Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities. Gen Z, Millennials and Gen X All Basically Agree on WFHДЄ bruising bond selloff ensued Friday, led by policy-sensitive short-term yields, after May data dashed any idea that inflation has peaked.

US Inflation Quickens to 40-Year High, Pressuring Fed and Biden Retailers Should Heed TargetвЂ™s Cautionary Tale TrumpвЂ™s Air Force One Deal Pains the Pentagon, Not Just Boeing US Lifts Covid-19 Test Requirement for International Travel (Bloomberg) - Treasury traders are throwing down the gauntlet to a Federal Reserve thatвЂ™s fallen further behind in its fight to cool the hottest inflation in four decades.

Nfib small business optimism